bridges too far – sailing too good

It is interesting to note the effects of exponentiality and growth. My City, my country and the planet all bit off the biggest chunk (it’s always bigger than the last one) just as the tide went out. All the leaders  – from my perspective – look arrogant and somewhat foolish. Dunedin mayor Chin, will only be remembered for putting all our eggs in a glass box, Obama for trying to kick-start a dead motorbike. The last one just had to be too big, no matter what the scale. Old woman swallowing the horse type thing. Sad thing is that we as a society have yet to demonstrate the maturity to go to where we have to – sustainability!   Given a choice of voting for our kids and the planet, or for tax cuts, we took the latter. Too late, we find out you need to have work to have tax to get cutted. Bugger eh?  All fall down.

The sailing is going well – Secondary School week-long regatta at present – full sailing schools and good vibes (and weather – always helps). Jaryd is proving that a jet-ski makes a reasonable safety craft – if you don’t overshoot the boat, harbour, and planet!  Ah to be 19 again, full throttle……

One Auckland, one Banks, no banks, and marine farms

Well, it’s to be one Auckland and a Lord Mayor. I have no trouble with the structure, indeed any structure, they are all only as good as those filling the positions. History suggests that, going into stressed times, one autocrat can be more effective that a collective. Mugabe proves that the alternative can also occur. Auckland has run out of time to get sustainable.  As oil exporting nations hang onto their resource, as oil-dependant nations get more antsy, and as the supply reduces, cities dependant on oil will stagger. Much has been written about the linkage between suburbia and the motor car, and projecting what may happen when the fuel becomes expensive, difficult to obtain, or rationed. None of it pretty. So whoever gets to be Lord Mayor has to be able to do more than bleat about your place on the OECD!  Most current leadership becomes inappropriate when the paradigms change………..

We are to have Marine farms – of course! There are no limits to growth, you just farm the sea! Um. We can presume to assume that the right hand has no idea what the right hand is doing, at this point. All economic development ultimately owes it’s existence to natural capital – real stuff. If we are reaching the Hubbert Peak for crucial finite resources, then the scenario has to be a sinking lid. Who will loan capital in that situation? It would be like betting on chairs in a game of musical ones! We are already guaranteed to crash still owing mother nature a debt – of that there is no doubt. Whether they manage to facilitate an extension of a provably unrepayable overdraft (thus ensuring we leave her an even greater debt), is the question. Marine farms will have to stand in the queue, the one at the window marked: Pounds of Flesh Accepted. It’s a long queue……………

The Usual Southern Culprits

Well, they don’t stop. Or get any better. Talk about politics in the gutter! Chin and Cairns, the christmas-card twins, this time putting the kybosh on Keogh talking. Even his article is now ‘the thoughts of a private citizen’. It would be laughable, if it was not so sad. Chin and Cairns either know they are shafting the Dunedin ratepayers, or they are that stupid they really think it’s a good idea. Either way they are inappropriate.

The big game seems to be watching the timing of the global train-wreck, and guessing which of the big development schemes will happen before the door closes. Clearly the laws of Exponentiality are at work here – google Albert Bartlett / Exponentiality  to get a handle on this….  Who knows?  I can only say that the price of oil is all you need to watch, to know the state of the ‘world economy’. Back up to $150/bbl and pot goes the weasel. Again. Easy eh?

Monday 23 on Michael Laws

At first I was grumpy. Now I just wonder…….Last year, Michael Laws wrote ( in the SST) of Peak Oil, quite perceptively. and finished “It’s going to be a bleak winter”. I wrote a (published) letter congratulating him on being the first of the genre to see what was coming.

In hindsight, that was an odd thing – there were (are) heaps more thoughtful, less ego-curtailed, less bombastic, opinionated, (in my opinion) folk around – although we haven’t actually heard them articulating the problem yet.

Now, he pours forth with a diatribe – there is  no other description – well below the level required of a paid opinion-haver, let alone mayor. Why ?

He has it wrong, of course. The fuel gauge is still heading towards E, even if at a reduced rate. His comments about nuclear power show a fairly mediocre application of intellect, too. How it is meant to supplant plastics, bitumen and fertiliser, to power agriculture, aircraft…… and uranium (he can’t have checked) is a finite resource too. Before Gordon Brown has built his ‘thousand new nuclear power stations’, the supply will have gone – same Hubbert Curve applies, so sorry, sayonara.

The interesting thing to question is why the diatribe, now?  What pressed his buttons? Peer-group ridicule? Falling ratings? A missing ‘H’?

And these are our leaders?

Friday 20th

The disconnect continues….on the one hand, a very clear graph at:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177#more

On the other, the amateur moves of an out-of-depth Government. No regional fuel tax, a wish-list of projects plucked from gut-and-political instinct. Just petty politics, immature really.

Our local jobs-summit was a weak joke too – I might run bookie on the number of times they dry to kick-start their dead motorbike. There is actually too much to do, and not enough time to do it. We waste time through inept leadership – at all levels. We need the kind which questions concepts like ‘jobs’, and ‘wealth’.

This lot are just backing around the ring, dodging punches. Watch for signs of concussion…….may be hard to differentiate…………..

The privateers are here

Well, it had to happen – that Parnell coffee wasn’t the first!  I used to worry about privatisation, but not any more. Ironically, the first appearance of it in 1984, in hindsight heralded the end of ‘growth’. Think about it – if there were unlimited opportunities for all, for ever, why disenfranchise the public? They we already showing that the end was nigh ……… fuckwits!

Bill English sounded the note today, acknowledging that internal credit would not get them out of it. What went unspoken is the fact that every other country is in the same boat.

Why don’t I worry?  Because there are too few of them, and too many of us. We either vote to repossess, or we storm the barricades and repossess. In the end, Nationalisation can be done by decree, with no recompense, on behalf of the greater community. And it may well get to that.

That was Monday………..

My first rolling comment post…watch out world!

Well, that was a Dunedin Saturday. Another Think Big venture – this time oil ships on the Harbour Basin! As likely as the flapping porker scenario, and if the lead-times given are any indication, as likely to get off the ground. The question you have to ask of all these continued-growth types, is “are you completely stupid?”, and the answer (probably only verbal) is – “yes”.

Then there was the Kim Hill interview with Wayne Lochore (a man who has a copy of  ‘Collapse’ on his desk). He started onto supply-side issues, she headed him off, he mentioned the Club of Rome, she stopped him dead. This on top of the Jenny Morel interview a few days ago, on ninetonoon. She slid off  into solar energy, and made the show. Good that that kind of insight is so close to our Reserve Bank. Then you hear the ‘edited highlights’, and that bit is missing. Highlights? Who decided ?

This is cognitive dissonance taken to an unacceptable degree. If your cafe latte lifestyle is about to founder, then report the sinking. Comfy middle-class denial is not a good fit with what we presume to be the intelligent end of our media. Come on RNZ………………….

That’s Saturday