AH, SATURDAY

Kim Hill had a couple of good one on today. Interestingly, she stopped the Weir comment about global resources, although there is an excuse this time, as they were other-topic bound.

The Iceland interview was fascinating from the perspective of Hvalsey Church – they are the same genetic origin, the immediate question is : anthropologically, are they wired with a self-destructive flaw?  Probably not, Iceland survived until modern times, whereas the Greenland Norse failed eons ago.

I see my letter in the ODT today, probably means I won’t ever get an opinion article in ever again! I thought about that before I sent it, but there is not enough time for things to progress at the present pace, so me maintaining the present number with them (2 – 3 a year) is not the answer, or at least, it is a quantifiable waste of energy.

This blog is one strand of doing better, the talks are another, think we have to look at a book soon.

POWERDOWN TIMELINE

How long is the timeframe? Peak energy had to be somewhere between 2005 and 2015. It hasn’t happened as we predicted  (ie it has happened but not the smooth peak we all anticipated), but it has followed demand-destruction oscillations presaged in the likes of the North American gas market. Perhaps also in the old whale-oil market too. The compound to bear in mind is demand growth via population growth, and per-capita demand growth. The slow drop off the Hubbert Curve is totally eclipsed by the demand curve climb, and the exponentially-expanding difference is the problem. It manifests rapidly, so we will have gone to wherever we are going to before 2020.

Even given that timeframe, several things show up immediately. Given lead-times, infrastructure construction / alteration has to happen now. Also, the problem will be forseen by others, and stockpiling will occur, even if war doesn’t. Concurrently,  the devaluation of ‘wealth’ will keep people, communities and nations off-balance. Brownlee’s oil and gas exploration is a wasted effort, for instance. Before anything happens in terms of extraction – the only yardstick – what will happen will have happened. He would do better throwing the dosh at insulation, followed by passive-solar retrofits, and solar hot-water. Remove the demand and you remove the deficit. Duh.

I’m coming to the conclusion that those who need to grow do so because they instinctively know themselves to be intrinsically stunted. Perhaps publicly-paid psychological help would be a cheaper option for same – but that is like fighting obesity with health dollars, they wouldn’t get there because they wont get there.

We’ve done the beach-walk thing, the custard square and newspaper thing, the housekeeping thing, and the bad weather is yet to hit. Which means the article is on the back burner. Some joinery methinks, then more coffee, then…..nah, she’ll be asleep!  Have a good day….