the ghost of Tiananmen Square

Most in the west don’t get China. We think she will ‘grow’ at astonishing rates, become western in consumption levels, and will ultimately become democratic. It is true that when you create a consuming middle-class, they resent being controlled and democracy follows. This may or may not have happened with China, the history of the collective psyche suggests a predilection to following instruction.

It won’t happen, though. China is hard up against the physical limits to growth, now, as her stockpiling of coal demonstrates. The mass middle class won’t happen. Which leaves a single-minded, and dangerous, authority in control of 1.3 billion people, and increasingly in control of us. Cashed-up, they are roaming the world buying up stakes in the likes of F&P, but more importantly, in big energy companies.

The western political world is preoccupied at the moment – trying to kick-start the last great ponzi-scheme of them all (growth), keeping GM afloat, even if it will be gm, defending entitlement rorts, etc etc.  Do they see the danger? Key goes there with Van der Hayden, thinking only of dosh, in an environment that has just demonstrated the ability to seduce and destroy the likes of Fonterra. Talk about innocents abroad!

China will continue to play the game through aquisition, while equilibrium continues. Her assets. though, are in large part green-back related – if the US crashes, so does her ‘wealth’, although nobody – yet – has worked out whether wealth is going to be a matter of (international) relativity, whether debt will just crash, or whether finance will morph into something based on things real, like energy or gold.

That there will be a war, over dwindling resources, nothing surer. The first cabs off the rank will be the USA  (70% dependant on foreign oil) and China (most likely to be ostracised in any Treaty flurry). This is Age of Empires, lesson one. The US should go first (her trend being from strength to weakness) China will leave her run as late as possible. Most western countries will instinctively go with the ‘States, the wild-cards are the emerging economies, those which have been raped of their resources by the West (Nigeria, South Africa, most of South America) and will harbour resentment. It is no coincidence that China is wooing any and everywhere she can. A very unchoosy harlot.

We should be warned by the metaphor – you can catch a lot of nasty, unwanted things by bedding down in such company……. and you can die of them

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