Climate Change 10% 20% Nick Smith – they will make it easily

Apples are often best compared with apples. Oil is the major driver of our emissions – those who don’t see this are nuts. What farm is going to keep on with dairying for export, when the dwindling of oil supplies reduces demand, constricts local transport, and maybe even curtails ocean transport. So the methane count is absolutely linked to the oil supply. Which is, as Dr Fatih Birol pointed out, dwindling. He has shortened his estimate for peak from 2050, to 2030, to 2020, and then said that there will be ‘supply constraints ‘ from 2010. That change has taken less than a year, as he tries to interface the IEA’s previous cobblers, with reality.

Supply constraints from 2010 has the effect of no supply for little old New Zealand by 2020. Target easily reached, then. Too little, too late, of course. Places like England – 65 million fed by truck through the chunnel – will be doing well to avoid a bloodbath, well before climate change becomes an issue. It will, but just second cab off the rank. We will probably be in better shape, barring refugees.

That said, this represents a big move for money-solves-everything types. Perhaps we should applaud, and encourage. Don’t know if I’ve got it in me, quite yet…..


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