Cameron Bagrie – listen to the man

There is one – and perhaps only one – economist in New Zealand who talks sense. No, it’s not Rod Oram, he’s a nice fellow, but I think his religious trait perhaps drives his optimism. For instance, we won’t be ‘feeding 9 billion by 2050’, as he hopes.

No,it’s Cameron Bagrie. chief economist for for the ANZ/National Bank. The man is good, and I’ve been thinking this since Christmas. In a little piece in today’s ODT, (Survey points to growth / Dene MacKenzie) he rather knocks the heading to pieces, but his languge is pure poetry. The two ‘influential’ surveys (MacKenzie’s description!!) are from the Otago Chamber of Commerce, (an unbiased and deep-thinking menage) and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, which I don’t know enough of to comment about.

Both surveys, when you got down to detail, were of how optimistic folk were. Nothing more. Words like ‘Expectations’.

Here’s  Bagrie: “The divergence between the expected and experienced reading was the widest it had been in the history of the survey”.        “This is telling and mirrors the divergence between the current and future conditions readings……with the latter rebounding but the former unchanged”.    “….There are aspects that appear to lack substance and are based on expectations as opposed to reality”.

You would have to look to his bank if you were in an investing mood, eh?

He’s been consistently like that all the way – I suspect he has a good handle on peak oil, peaking resources, demand and destruction.  Hard to know whether Dene is ‘pleasing all men each way’, and letting Bagrie’s message get to the astute, while the glib just soak up the headline.

Bagrie is one to watch – every word is in place – listen closely.

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