The years biggest failure, and my biggest prediction

It’s been a few days since I blogged – bit hectic this time of year, and a few projects had to be readied before the holiday shut-down. Most notably, I have to re-build the catamaran (the Paper Tiger) for the Masters Games in Feb. Early Feb! This is the thing with no decks, sitting in the conservatory….

Along with that, was the pelton wheel, it’s pix and the inevitable attendant article. Watch Lifestyle Block magazine, March issue.

If that wasn’t enough, there was the ‘Eco-Hut’ project at Port school – a ton of fun, but we did do the last effort on the day AFTER school finished. It too will be a column article at some point, May or June issue.

Anyway…..the years biggest failure?    The lack of anyone engaging in the ‘limits to exponential growth’  has been head-and-shoulders far-and-away the worst memory I will keep of the year. Gareth Morgans pathetic (his words) little put-down of the Club of Rome’s ‘Limits to Growth’ (and presumably its 10 year updates) is the only one in print. All of them, including him,  tout unlimited exponential growth, without defending – or referring to a defence of –  that unsustainable construct.

I’ve hammered all media (well, not talk-back!) this year on the subject, and my New-year’s resolution is to make the debate happen. Of course, if they just looked around them, they’d understand it is already hitting the wall. Heads in (what’s left of) the sand, then.

My prediction:  you saw it at Copenhagen, and you’ll see it more and more in the next 5 (my guess) years. The USA doesn’t have the energy/time to repay its debt, now, and it’s 25% of a rate of global consumption which is at 3 times the sustainable rate. There isn’t the room for China to put her head up, without the USA pulling hers out of the hole first, and I doubt that will go down well domestically. Also, if you lose a war, debt is not your issue, and if you win it, you can decree that you have no debt….  From the Chinese leadership perspective, they need to deliver at home, or they vanish with a boot up the bum (actually, China has a track-record of disintegration/fragmentation after cohesive  groundswellings) so those two will have the face-off. You’d have to pick India going with China, Europe with the US, in fact, this may pan out to be a first-world vs third world scrap.

If that’s the case, the first world should go early, the third world late. Sad for a pacifist to predict such, but there are 3 times too many people on the planet, or the ones here now are using the resources at 3 times the sustainable rate – choose your view. The pacifist approach os to de-consume, and to de-populate, voluntarily and peacefully.

That won’t happen. So we will have a scrap over the residue. which will be ugly.

What the heck – have a good break. Some of us, of course, only know it’s a break because of the change in the traffic – less trucks and more towed boats. We just continue our low-impact, low consumption lives (productive ones, depending on your definition of same) and sleep with our easy consciences.

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