rainy day thoughts – and cognitive dissonance

It’s raining gently on the trees, the veggies, and the chooks. The goat is peering out from his shed, the border collie is curled up wasting the morning. I’ve got a tandem bike to finish assembling, an article to write, and some wiring I’d like to do if it stops raining.

It’s interesting to note two types of reaction to the IEA’s “world Energy Outlook 2010′. In the one corner, folk like me look on in incredulity. As Stuart Staniford (Early Warning blog) says, google-search the 2005 IEA report for Peak Oil, and you get ‘doomsayers’. Google 2007/8/9, not a mention.

But then – drumroll – 2010 has Peak Oil in 2006, in the rearview mirror!

Prof Kenneth Deffeyes had it pretty right, writing in 1998 – he predicted it for Thanksgiving Day (Nov 22) 2005, give or take 3 months. There goes an impressive and brave man.

Luckily, that was what I put my time-line against, when moving from the old house onto the forest block. Luckily, I realised enough to understand that the ‘property boom’ was unsustainable – even to work out that it was in overshoot, and to track the overshoot.

Three years ago, I walked into Dene McKenzie’s ‘office’ in the ODT, and gave him the Deffeyes book, which I’d gotten out of the Library specially for him. Mine being out on (permanent?) loan. I said “this is the end of growth”.

So far, after some ‘chivvying’, we’ve had one article about the IEA outlook, not from McKenzie, but his offsider Simon Hartley. Both, I believe, are ‘growth/free-market-can-do-no-wrong believers (and I use the word ‘believers’ carefully – it requires a faith, does an artificial construct) so it will be interesting to see if anything goes any further.

I suspect some more prodding will be needed.

On the good side, we have a Peak Oil aware Mayor, and I suspect, a majority of Council – not that reporter David Loughrey will tell us so (or is there a gatekeeper? Senior reporter?). They understand the danger of debt, and so will probably do as well as anyone could, if all they do is address it.

Although a cycle-way through the Cavvy tunnel would be cool.

I notice on Interest.co.nz, that the bulk of commenters are ‘getting Peak Oil’, as is Bernard Hickey. I started commenting there a while back, because I reckoned he was the most likely to ‘get it’ first, of all the fiscal types, and therefore the best place to nudge.

It’s been fun, but I do find that ducking back in to see what has been said, and answer it, takes me from real work in the garden or the trees. Maybe I need a Blackberry (heaven knows I’ve got enough) and satellite link.

Or maybe the world has to change and I can retire like Scott McKenzie.


I just looked him up – looks like he didn’t retire, but then, I guess none of us really do!


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