BP world energy outlook – from the oil drum

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7387#more

and an excerpt (well, actually, a comment, and there’s some good ones, including a couple of cracker graphs):

Let’s just consider that 4th graph, labeled ‘Supply’. The only portion that is believable on its face is Non-Opec decline. Beyond that, two words – net energy.

The biggest chunk of Non-Opec is Biofuels, largely ethanol. As ethanol has an EROEI of barely more than unity, it can essentially be erased from the graph, in terms of net energy, which is what matters to society. So there’s about 5mbd of BP’s ‘growth’ gone. Oil sands at around 8:1 EROEI are about 1/3 of current crude, so knock that bar back by 2/3rds, so from about 2mbd down to .7mbd. Brazil’s ultra-deep offshore will have a very poor EROEI, so it as well will yield much less useful net energy than indicated. Probably akin to the tar sands. Let’s assume Kazakstan and Azerbaijan can grow as indicated. So Non-Opec growth will be about 3mbd, rather than the 10 or so indicated. So Non-OPEC would decline by about 3mbd, instead of growing by 3-4 as shown.

Regarding OPEC Growth, NGL’s have only 2/3rds the energy of crude, so knock that bar down by 1/3. Saudi growth – ask Darwinian. Iraq growth??? Other? And where’s OPEC decline? Is BP saying OPEC is not subject to decline?

The absolute best scenario that I can draw even from BP’s data as given, is that OPEC growth might offset Non-OPEC decline, such that we remain on the plateau. There are lots of reasons to anticipate that the ‘best case’ will not manifest. Jeff Vail, Stoneleigh and many others have written about various aspects of this. Then incorporate what BP itself acknowledges regarding population growth, and we have a steeply declining net per capita energy availability. As I believe Christ Martenson likes to say, the next 20 years will not look like the last 20 years.

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