Staniford examines the Guardian/Wikileaks files

An excerpt:

Publicly, al-Husseini was saying things like:

Saudi Arabia has a very credible and professional record in terms of declaring capacity and meeting its production targets. When the Kingdom announced a target of 12.5 million barrels of capacity, they actually committed funds to develop that capacity and we’ve seen them now commissioning those: 250,000 additional barrels in Shaybah; 1.2 million barrels in Khurais; 500,000 in Khursaniyah; 900,000 coming on stream in a couple of years in Manifa. So these are real projects and real capacities. I don’t think there is an issue that Saudi Arabia can deliver the oil it says it can deliver.

Apparently, he was singing a different tune to US diplomats in private.  Clearly, al-Husseini is an actor with complex motives and not everything he says can be taken at face value.

Staniford is the best – along with Jeffrey Brown – in the business. That appraisal is worth a big think.

The best appraisal of Ghawar, I think including ‘Twilight in the Desert’ (which padded it out with too many words) is this:

(the ‘mouse-overs’ are cool)

Both are worthy of a long think. Ghawar is a mighty giant, but when she staggers, that’s it for world numbers. The water-cut is the key. 50 years old, peaked in 1980, taking more water in than oil out, and they had to swap to seawater (aquifer depletion). Imagine to corrosion maintenance…..

Do we have a plan B?

Go to that podcast of nine-to-noon, John Fleming, and listen closely. “We have maybe five years to find something” “there may not be anything”.

Which is why, until something is proven, I advocate powering down. Hark, I hear the days motorway traffic increasing….obviously my outlook is not universal.


ps – here’s another :

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